2021 has been astonishing for many reasons, not just Covid-19.  In fact, Covid-19 might not be the most astonishing thing to have happened this year. We have been experiencing what scientists have been warning us about for at least 3 decades, probably more. Climate change is here, it is bad, and it is real—very real.

There was a glaring example of what the new world, after climate change, will look like and it happened in one of the most unlikely spots namely coastal British Columbia the place that is famous for mild weather far from the extremes.  That was before climate change. Now it is famous for extreme weather. How is that possible? How? Climate change of course.

This summer the tiny town of Lytton B.C.  experienced the hottest temperature in Canada’s history—49.6ºC. Not only that, it shattered the previous record for that area by 7 ºC and  it shattered the Canadian record by 5ºC.  In fact, it defied all computer modelling of how the world might change as emissions rose. It was beyond the most extreme that has been considered possible by scientists.

Much of this was the consequence of something I had never heard of before—a heat dome. A heat dome works like this: hot air is blown in from the ocean and meets existing warm conditions on the land and then the hot air tries to rise, as it usually does, but is trapped and compressed by the atmospheric high pressure above it. The heat that is trapped then intensifies with the “dome” where it diverts the jet stream.   When the heat dome diverts the jet stream to the north that prevents cooler air from coming south and replacing the warm air.

The young climate activist from Sweden Greta Thunberg has been the best spokesman for what is going on. She has described this as an “emergency”. Many people say they agree with her; it is an emergency, but they are not acting that way.

This past year during the Covid-19 pandemic I had an emergency moment. I thought I had Covid-19.  I had a very high fever that did not go away. After waiting awhile I decided to take a brief nap to see if it would go away. It didn’t; it got worse.  Chris drove me to the hospital emergency room. Frankly, I was convinced without doubt that I had Covid-19. Extreme fever was, I had been told, the best sign of Covid-19. When I got to the hospital, I explained to the staff that I thought I had Covid-19. They took seriously what I said.

There was no more waiting in the Emergency Room I was whisked into the emergency ward, I was stripped of my clothes and dignity, forced to change into hospital clothes and was immediately subjected to all kinds of tests, including a test for Covid-19. The hospital team immediately went to work without  delay.

I thought I might die. That thought entered my mind. Later I l my physician said “your fever was so high old men like you do not usually survive such high temperatures as you had.” The staff jumped to the pump and saved my life. I was very grateful.  I may be an old man, but I wanted to live a little longer.

It turned out I did not have Covid-19, but I had pneumonia which at such high temperatures is also very dangerous. It was an emergency and the staff acted like it was an emergency. I was very grateful that the staff treated it like an emergency and did not mouth platitudes.

Greta Thunberg has said we are in a climate emergency. I have not heard any trustworthy person say she is wrong. Yet no one has jumped into action to save the planet in any comparable sense. Why is that? Does no one care? Is it that people don’t really think it is an emergency. By and large it is business as usual with minor adjustments such as changing lightbulbs. By our inaction we are guaranteeing disaster, not for the planet, it will survive, but for much of life on the planet, including human life. It will be disastrous.

Bill Maher, in his own inimical style said it well: “We are in a Thelma and Louise moment, holding hands and driving off the edge of the Grand Canyon.”

Climate change is here. Does any one believe business as usual makes sense?

One of the consequences of climate change according to the scientists is extreme weather. If we have it more often will it still be extreme?

The summer of 2021 was extreme by many standards. One of them was clearly extreme weather. For example, in Canada the record hottest temperature was experienced in British Columbia of all places. And the record was broken by 5ºC.  B.C. had a day where the high temperature reached 46.9 which was 5ºC above the previous Canadian high. Climate models did not even consider such a high temperature. It was literally off the charts for B.C. Scientists have said that such extreme temperatures would be “virtually  impossible” It was caused by what the scientists have called a  “heat dome.”

Europe experienced the year of the deluge. As a result, western Germany and Belgium experienced floods caused by a near stationary low pressure system. As a result 160 people as a result of flooding. In the town of Bad Neuenahr one of the worst hit areas, 98 of the those people died including 12 that died in a home for the disabled. In addition thousands  were rendered homeless as a result of the devastation. The river Erft poured into a gravel quarry triggering a landslide that collapsed houses nearby. The quarry had been expanded in 2015 and in order to get the permit  the owner was required to build a 1.2 km protective wall to prevent the pit from filling with water in he event of a flood. Unfortunately the wall was ineffective to hold off the deluge when the water overflowed higher up the river gushing through a local town. As the Guardian reported, “But the kind of extreme weather events the world is seeing with increasing frequency come with unpredictable consequences.”

In fact, you expand that thought. Climate change is coming with unpredictable consequences. We are conducting a global experiment with our civilization and do not know what the consequences will be. We just know they will be extreme. Extreme weather events bring extreme consequences. We are doing what people have never done before.

The rainfall in nearby Cologne reached 155 mm which was an astonish 60 mm above the previous record.

Records are being broken everywhere. Many of these records are ones we don’t want to break. As the Guardian reported,

“First, more records are being broken more often;  the world’s seven hottest years in recorded history have all come since 2014. Second, scientists can use statistical analysis and computer models to calculate how much more likely particular weather events become as a result of the extra stress people have put on the climate system.  For example, human emissions made the deadly “heat dome” in North America last month at least 150 times more likely and the prolonged heatwave in Siberia last year more than 600 times more probable.”

While I am concentrating on what has already happened—the apocalypse now—such numbers are disturbing. The weather event on the west coast killed an estimated 1 billion marine creatures. The recent spike at Lytton increased the Canadian record for highest temperature in Canada by 5 degrees. Now such events are more than 150 times more likely.  A killing heat wave in Siberia, of all places, is now 600 times more likely.

This has made many people there wonder what the actual costs of climate change will turn out to be. No one knows of course, but the costs will be massive. As the Guardian said, “There is no scientific consensus, but experts are increasingly concerned the world could be in for a bumpier ride than previously thought.”

Once more of these extreme weather events have already happened, there will be more. We will pay more.  Soon extreme weather won’t be extreme anymore.   I don’t know about you, but I don’t like bump rides and don’t need them any bumpier.

I am worried about the future Not my future so much. Frankly, at 72, how many years do I have left? How many good years? Even less. I worry about the future of my grandchildren. I have 4 of them between the ages of 2 and 15. Their future is frightening.

But the present is already bad enough.  British Columbia, long thought of as a province with mild climate, this past year  produced a high of 49.6ºc this year. It now holds the record for the hottest day in Canada. That record was 5ºC above the previous high! During that heat wave an estimated 1 billion marine animals died in the waters off the west coast. This has already happened. It is not in the far distant future.

This year Madagascar had the worst drought in 40 years leaving a million people facing food shortages.  The climate writer David Wallace said this meant it was a “permanent emergency.” That is where we are now.

Yet where is our political will now?  As the Guardian said, “So far, binding commitments to make the cuts in carbon emissions need to avoid temperature rises above 2C are notable by their absence.” The countries of the world are about to meet in Scotland. Will they do any better? I doubt it. I hope I’m wrong.

The Guardian talked about “threats” because it is likely that the computer models are underestimating those threats.  It also warned about “nightmarish possibilities.”

What about nightmarish realities that are already with us?