My previous post indicated how the absence of relevant numbers of vaccinated people and unvaccinated people could be seriously misleading, because the province did not give adequate information about the proportion of the population that was vaccinated and unvaccinated.
There is a second important way in which the provincial numbers should be shown to Manitobans in order to reveal the true risk to unvaccinated people of being unvaccinated. In addition to the proportion of vaccinated Manitobans compared to unvaccinated Manitobans we should be told the relative ages of people who are suffering seriously from COVBID-19. In other words, the numbers must also take into consideration that a large proportion of people who are fully vaccinated are also old and most at risk of catching the virus and more importantly getting sick to such an extent that they require hospitalization or even die.
The information we have been receiving from the Health authorities in Manitoba, is even more misleading without the information of ages.
This should be provided to make the real risks even clearer. Even more context is required to ensure Manitobans are not misled into thinking the risks of going unvaccinated are less than they really are.
Todd Friesen a Manitoba actuary has also jumped into the fray adding more information than just population that would help to make risks clear to Manitobans. As Friesen said,
“If you don’t provide the context on these types of pie charts, then you run the risk of them being misused by the public and social media,..We need to do some minimal steps there to contextualize the data and to make sure that we are communicating the actual relative risk between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated.”
Friesen said that without the context of age, Manitobans would underestimate the dangers of going unvaccinated. The reason for that is that older people, as we all know have a much higher chance of experiencing a severe outcome from COVID-19. As the Winnipeg Free Press reported, “Friesen said the average age of unvaccinated people in Manitoba is about 20, compared to 45 for people who have been vaccinated.” And that is very important.
As the Free Press reported about what Friesen said ,
“One thing that’s contributing to that is we have a large cohort of ineligible kids who are not vaccinated… What ends up happening is we’re implicitly comparing unvaccinated kids with seniors who are fully vaccinated. And the relative risks between seniors and kids are not remotely close.”
It’s not fair to compare unvaccinated young people who have little chance of getting seriously sick from COVID-19 to old people like me. That is not comparing apples to apples. Friesen did the math, and concluded:
“When adjusted for age, unvaccinated people are 45 times more likely to need hospitalization related to COVID-19 and 85 times more likely to need ICU admission.”
When you compare apples to apples, the difference in risk in not being vaccinated is remarkable. In fact, it would be miraculous if unvaccinated people were not doing better than vaccinated people, because most of them are much younger than the vaccinated people. The old codgers, like me, mainly realize the dangers, and are getting vaccinated. The younger people feel less danger and are not getting vaccinated in such large percentages. As a result, without these age adjustments, if you merely look at the percentage of people who are getting COVID-19 and are also vaccinated you can greatly underestimate the risk for younger people who are unvaccinated.
As Friesen explained, “Those are substantial numbers. It shows very clearly how effective vaccines are.”
That is what the province of Manitoba should be telling all Manitobans—context that makes sense of the numbers. Too many of us are not smart enough to figure this out, and all of us are paying a hefty price for this ignorance. Most of us are not actuaries. The Province should do a better job of presenting the numbers. If they did, perhaps more people would realize the importance of getting vaccinated.