This is a very unclear photograph I took of a photograph through a dirty window which I saw in Vukovar. It shows what Vukovar looked like after its war that lasted less than 4 months. Perhaps it is best that we can’t see it clearly? What would Canada look like after a Civil War? Or the United States? Do you think that is impossible? History suggests otherwise.
A friend of mine told me recently, he found history boring. He did not want to learn anything about European countries fighting each other in “ancient” wars. I was surprised, but I suspect that is a common reaction. I did not challenge his point of view. After all, we are all different. I suspect that most of my readers are bored by my comments about history. I hope not, but as I have said at the outset of this blog, I am writing for myself, because I enjoy it and because I write to organize my thoughts and as a result, I learn more. I hope some others enjoy what I write, but I write for myself.
Well, I think Yugoslavian history is very important. Even though that country no longer exists. When Yugoslavia broke up the extremists took over. That is the worst thing that can happen. Extremism in Yugoslavia led directly to savagery and barbarism. That is where extremism often leads.
As a recovering lawyer, I know one thing is very important. That is that divorce is never simple. Who gets the kids? Who gets the new computer? How much should one of the couple pay the other for support? Does it matter if one is at fault? Does it matter if one earned much more money than the other during the marriage?
And rarely, have the couple planned it out carefully before the divorce. After all they were in love forever.
We must multiply the difficulties in the case of a country breaking up. That is even much more complicated. First, there are no clear rules. That means it is a minefield. It can quickly turn into a melee. Secondly, there are a lot more than 2 people and kids involved. Millions have their millions of opinions. So you get a great variety of opinions on both sides (or really, all sides) on every issue. Some of the questions are still the same. Who gets the good stuff? Like oil. Or nuclear reactors? Or the army? Who gets the debt? How are the new boundaries to be determined? What about the people left behind in the “wrong country.” How do we resolve these issues when there is no court to determine it.
We also have to remember that the loudest voices are often not most thoughtful voices? Extremists always seem to move to the podium in each country from where they speak the loudest. Level heads rarely count for much. The quiet ones seem out of the picture. The hot heads are screaming and we know where they stand.
Canada has a lot in common with Yugoslavia. And that’s the problem. Let’s consider a few issues. Consider Quebec. If it separates what happens to the national debt of Quebec or Canada? What if the Cree or Innu from northern Quebec want to stay in Canada? What if other first nations want to stay in Quebec? What are the new boundaries going to be? Some are pretty arbitrary. What if Labrador wants to be part of Quebec, rather than Newfoundland. What if St. Boniface wants to be part of Quebec? What about those that don’t want to follow their leaders? Where do the Maritimes go if they are no longer connected to the rest of Canada.
Consider Alberta? Who gets the oil wells? What if indigenous people don’t want to stay in Alberta? What about the massive subsides that have been poured into the oil and gas industry over the decades? What if Alberta is landlocked? Is it too bad so sad for Canada? What about guarantees of religious freedom? What if LGBTQ don’t want to be part of Alberta? What if some people, from Saskatchewan want to be part of the new country of Alberta? What if others, let’s say farmers, don’t want to join? What if Manitoba says, well then we will join the US as their 51st state (assuming the US would be stupid enough to agree to this)?
What if some first nations want to stay with Alberta and others want to stay with Canada? What if some want to join the US? What happens to the treaties between Canada and First Nations?
We have to remember what Ignatieff said: “One essential problem with the language of self-determination and nationhood is its contagious. Quebec has discovered a people who also call themselves a nation.” The Cree in that province have been fighting back.
Separation will be incredibly complicated. And tempers will be running wild. Remember, hot heads will rise to the top. Cooler heads will likely not prevail. On both sides. Things can get out of hand quickly. Witness what happened in Yugoslavia. Neighbours there who had got along well for many years, all of sudden took up arms against each other?
What can we learn from Yugoslavia? One thing, is that such questions are extremely divisive, and partisans can quickly appear who want to fight it out and will insist on belligerence from their leaders, not wisdom. History is important, and it must warn us and we must learn to be careful. Another lesson is that we must not turn our country over to the extremists. Finally, we learn from history that violence and anger don’t solve any problems. They just make things worse and they are unlikely to be in short supply.
We must learn humility. Hubris will be deadly.
And finally, such issues won’t be easier to resolve in this age of technological amplification of divisions and the rapid spread of disinformation, particularly disinformation that inflames matters. Things will be exponentially worse.
And if this happens too in the USA, which is flooded with firearms and other weapons and a history of violence that seems to be baked into their DNA, things are bound to be much worse than in Canada. As if all of that is not bad enough, the recent history of Americans choosing explosively ignorant leaders will also not be helpful. Times of tension require cool heads not hot heads. And they will be in short supply.
Learning history of places like Yugoslavia could help us to avoid the worst excesses of what happened there when that country broke up. Maybe it could even help us to avoid the break-up by reminding us of how precious our country is and we should not become complacent. It does not take much to slip into extremism. A little knowledge might help to avoid it.
All in all, things could get ugly. Quickly. The photograph above is what it means to look through a glass darkly. That is also what the sleep of reason brings.