Autocratic Leaders take advantage of our weaknesses

 

Populist, Machiavellian, and autocratic leaders have learned to take advantage of our natural (evolved) biases against us.  Goodman used the example of Andrew Tate in England to illustrate his point. I would use leaders with autocratic tendencies instead, like Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán. And of course, it seems to me, that the young people, being even more impressionable than the older people, seem to be most attracted to such strong man leaders.  Perhaps they are more impressionable, or perhaps, even more likely, they are the most unhappy with themselves.  In modern society, young people are starting to realize that their parent’s generation has screwed them by rigging the rules of society against them. It is no accident that this current generation, for the first time in history, is likely to live less well off than financially than their parents.

 

Strongmen, like Trump, are masters at using deceit and manipulation to create absurd trust in their abilities, against all evidence to the contrary, and then use that ability to propel themselves into positions of authority where they can use that authority to improve their own financial position at the expense of those who supported them. It’s a nasty trick if you can get away with it, and none is better at it than Donald Trump. Trump has done it many times and continues to do it as his supporters don’t seem to notice or don’t seem to care.

 

One of the techniques that strongmen in the past have used to gain influence over the populace include attacking science and knowledge. Hitler did it. Stalin did. And now Trump is doing it. When the Bolsheviks took power in Russia they quickly attacked the scientific community with claims that they were merely, “bourgeois” scientists who were acting on behalf of their financial supporters and then replaced them with more compliant and ideologically pure scientists. This is precisely what Trump has done by attacking woke scientists.

 

We must be careful to avoid allowing this to happen. As Jonathan Goodman said in his Guardian article,

 

“Where we see brute power combined with ignorance, we can throw our support behind knowledge, peaceful protest and education.

 

And finally, when reigns of terror end – and eventually, they always do – it is critical to learn and absorb the lessons. That way, we inoculate ourselves afresh against our natural tendency to trust the untrustworthy, carrying that wisdom forward into the future so that we’re better able to stymie the autocrats who seek to close our minds.

 

The best tool we can muster to defend ourselves from such attacks is our ability to think critically. We must cherish and protect that skill, as it is our most powerful weapon of self-defence. This is always our most powerful tool. When we give it up we submit to arbitrary and ruthless authority. That is why autocrats are so quick to attack it because that makes us defenceless to their attacks.

 

Are we hard-wired for autocracy?

 

Jonathan R Goodman in an article in the Guaridan earlier this year asked this question “Are we hard-wired for autocracy? That is the big question.

 

Here is what he said,

A recent piece of research [in the UK] suggested that more than half of people aged between 13 and 27 would prefer the UK to be an authoritarian dictatorship… The way we evolved predisposes us to place trust in those who often deserve it least – in a sense, hardwiring us to support the most Machiavellian among us and to propel them into power. This seems like an intractable problem. But it’s what we do in the face of that knowledge that matters.

 

Yascha Mounk, Associate professor  at Johns Hopkins University in Washington D.C. made similar claims about the US and backed it up with personal research. If both the US and UK are headed toward autocracy the world is in trouble. Sadly, there is a lot of evidence that this is the case.

 

Part of the problem is that humans have a strong liking to be led by strong men. Like our primate cousins. As Goodman wrote,

 

“Recent work in anthropology and primatology shows how this wiring evolved. Our ancient ancestors, like most primates today, lived in groups dominated by violent and aggressive alpha males. Yet over the course of our biological and cultural evolution, unlike our primate cousins, we learned to work together to counter those bullyboys, organising to diminish their influence.We learned that cooperation was more effective than bloody competition. We don’t have to be ruled by bullies, but it is natural so we must be careful, diligent and smart to resist the “natural” tendency. In fact, many now realized that it is through cooperation much more than individual initiative that humans have mastered the globe, where our primate cousins have fallen behind us in development.  As Goodman said, “Where we see brute power combined with ignorance, we can throw our support behind knowledge, peaceful protest and education.

 

Our nearest evolutionary neighbours, chimpanzees,  also cooperate but not to the extent that we do. They are much more likely to be led by strong alpha males, though sadly and unwisely, in my view, we seem to be evolving towards their approach. Goodman put it this way in his article: “It’s human nature to trust strongmen, but we’ve also evolved the tools to resist them…”

 

The researchers  pointed out we have more recently evolved to cooperate more and compete less. That has come about from learning biases. In other words humans have evolved to believe what other people around us believe, particularly those we see as being successful. For example, in the US many people see Trump as successful. I don’t but they do. People evolved to believe the strong men in their group because that was where they could find protection. Scientists call these conformity or prestige biases.

 

There was an interesting scientific work by the  psychologist Solomon Asch that showed people would tend to believe what successful people around them believed, even when they were wrong. For example, he devised a test where people were asked a simple question. He asked them to compare 2 lines on a piece of paper that were actually the same length. But when they heard others around them say one was longer than the other, they tended to believe it as well.  This probably evolved with us when we lived in small hunting groups. However, those overly trusting beliefs can lead us into serious trouble. Autocratic leaders for example can exploit this natural tendency. Many of the autocrats  are very skillful at manipulating others. Goodman put it this way:

 

Some people call this trait proactive aggression, others, Machiavellian intelligence,  or the ability and inclination to dominate not with violence, but via social manoeuvring and deceit.

 

It is easy to see how this can apply to autocratic or wanna be autocratic leader, such as Victor Orbán in Hungary  or Trump. In other words they found that we can favor those among us who pretend to cooperate at least until they stop. Then they become rivals. We have to be smarter and think more critically.

 

These evolutionary traits can be helpful or dangerous.  When we realize we have these traits, as do most people around us, we have to be careful to look out for bad signs of trouble ahead. We can resist these tendencies, but too often don’t,

How did Hungary fall into Authoritarianism?

 

Retuning to my question of how was it possible for a country such as Hungary to move from democracy to autocracy, I want to look at Hungary as a prime example.

 

Guardian writer Danielle Renwick wrote about how people learn to live with a dictator. To look at this issue from the perspective of Hungary she interviewed  Stefania Kapronczay the former head of Hungarian Civil Liberties Union.

 

In comparing the United States to Hungary she made one very important point that surprised me. Kapronczay said what is happening in the US does in fact echo what happened in Hungary but with one big difference:

 

“It’s happening much faster, and it’s surprising for me that so many private companies and institutions just complied with the perceived or expressed will of president Trump. I didn’t expect so many people would be so risk-averse.”

 

 

Viktor Orbán was first elected to power in Hungary as a capitalistic liberal in 1998 when the people in Hungary were very unhappy with post-cold war politics. That was actually a common reaction among countries that were from the Communist bloc and then felt lost when that bloc collapsed after 1989. This is not entirely different than the recent collapse of support for democracy among large segments of American and Canadian societies. That is why Hungry is so important.

 

A lot of people in Hungary thought Democracy did not deliver what people expected after the fall of communism. They hated communism but thought they would do better with democracy than they got.  In 2002 Orbán’s party lost power as people were dissatisfied and voted out his party.

 

Then later Orbán returned to power as the head of government after the Hungarian democratic elections in 2010 and then he was a different leader. He was no longer the liberal, so he changed the rules in his own favor. First, he changed the voting rules so it would be easier to get his party elected the next time. Trump did this too and is doing it now. I know Democrats have done that too but during this time Republicans in the US controlled more states. I often think very few people in the US actually want democracy.  Each time one party is in power they change rules for their own benefit.

 

Orbán, again like Trump, also stacked the judicial system with people who supported him. He also attacked the liberal universities, like the one run by Canada’s former leader of the Liberal party, Michael Ignatieff. Trump has done the same thing in the US. Orbán also went after the press to toe the party line, just as Trump has been doing with vigor. Orbán also attack unfriendly NGOs and again Trump has followed suit.  Also, Orbán made some changes that that helped the poor in Hungary.  Trump has done a little of this, but much less.

 

The key here is gradual steps of dismantling democracy.  It does not happen with a bang. It usually happens by small steps. innocuous, but ominous small steps.

 

Kapronczay warned us in the west that opposition parties must understand that it is not good enough to run on platforms defending democracy.  That is too esoteric for many electors. Opposition parties in the west must not fail to address basic pocket book issues or they will be turfed out of office or never get back in.

 

Kapronczay also pointed out one more important thing opponents of autocracy should do is to avoid extremism. Tas she said,: “Autocrats really want to polarize the society, so any kind of initiative that goes against it is really important.”  Politicians like Trump thrive on the extremes. The more the liberals rant and scream at him and his supporters the more Trump likes it and the more his supporters think he must be doing a great job.

Polarization and autocracy go together like love and marriage.

 

So how does a country slip into autocracy from a democracy? By small steps. No steps are more dangerous than baby steps.

 

Is Hungary a Fascist State?

 

 

Andrew Marantz is a writer from the New Yorker and in the last couple of years has been paying a lot of attention to Hungary. He has visited it a number of times and he is very concerned about it. Besides writing about it, he has appeared in a number of podcasts together with Tyler Foggatt as part of The New Yorker Political Scene Podcasts.

 

Like me Marantz and Foggatt wanted to know: How bad have things got? How close to an authoritarian state has the United Statement become? And they started by looking at Hungary.

 

First, Marantz said when you go to Hungary, “it’s not a police state. It’s not like Russia.” This made me feel a little better. I was at the time travelling there. I have now been there again. When I was there I worried a bit about whether or not I had to be careful of what I looked at or read or wrote about. To the extent that fear was justified, Hungary is no longer a democracy, but an authoritarian state.

 

I wondered when I was there whether or not I should worry about what I wrote on my computer? Could I criticize Hungary? Could I criticize their leader Orbán? I really didn’t  want to go to jail. But I also didn’t want to shut up either.

 

Marantz also said this about Hungary on the podcast:

 

“It’s not like, you know, North Korea.  It’s a beautiful European capital where you walk around and it’s nice and you sit by the river and sip an espresso. And I interviewed all kinds of dissidents, academics, journalists who are opposed to the regime. And they didn’t say okay, you know, we can’t talk here. We have to go somewhere where we’re not going to be, you know hauled off into a van or something. Like that’s not the vibe.”

 

That sounded pretty good. I know Christiane and I visited Budapest in 2004 and I never once, not once, felt uneasy about being in a former Soviet satellite country.  But that was then. This is now.  And thanks to Viktor Orbán things now in 2025 are very different. And Hungary is a very good example for the rest of us about what can happen to a functioning democracy. Democratic countries can slide into autocracy or illiberal democracy or even fascism and many believe Hungary has done so under the second presidency of Viktor Orbán. He changed.

 

I know this time I felt a little different. I don’t want to exaggerate the feeling, but I don’t want to deny it either. So, what happened in Hungary between our last visit in 2004 2025.

 

First, what happened in Hungary has happened in many places in varying degrees.  A lot of countries around the world have been flirting with autocracy?  I visited some of them on this trip? Romania. Bulgaria. Serbia. And above all, Hungary. Why did this happen? That is the question I would really like to answer.

 

Some have suggested that we have a natural inclination to autocracy and not democracy. Disturbing research has shown that in many countries the popularity of democracy as a political system is in serious decline. And most disturbing of all is that the decline is pronounced in the United States, the country long known as the leader of the free world. It often claims to be the first constitutional democracy. Is it possible that democracy is declining even there? There is actually a lot of evidence, particular in the reign of Trump 2.0 that it has moved sharply in that direction.  Can America and Canada learn something from what happened in Hungary? Those are things that interest me.

Hungary: From Communism to Democracy to Fascism?

Ever since we signed up for the tour of the Balkans, tour without adequate thought as I have said, I have thinking about Hungary?  Why would a country that came so close to a successful revolt against Soviet Union domination in 1956 that it became for a while the darling of the west, now, after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, and Hungary became a democracy  not very long ago, be sliding back into autocracy?  Hungarians  know what Communism was like? How and why could this happen? Why would they allow it to happen? These are the questions that have haunted me and for which I have sought an answer, or at least an insight. I never have answers, who am I kidding? I just get more questions.

 

It seems like such a long journey: from Communism to Democracy to Fascism, but Hungary seems to have moved there in a flash. Not that is completely fascist yet, but it sure seems to headed in that disturbing direction. To me it seems like that is the journey Hungary has embarked upon under the direction of its populist leader Viktor Orbán. But is that really such a long journey? I actually think not. After all, communists and fascists agree on one very important thing—democracy is bad; autocracy is good. It is a movement from extremism on the left communism, to democracy and then to extremism on right namely fascism.

 

It is actually a very short journey from communism to fascism. Communism began with a dream of universal brotherhood of man—i.e. from each according to his means to each according to his needs. A beautiful dream that turned into a nightmare.  As Max Eastman, said, communism was “the God that failed”. The dream curdled from hope to violence. Lenin may have been the cook that switched the recipe when the proletariat, working people, gave up the hopes of freedom and justice in favor of a dictatorship of the proletariat. When the communist leaders crushed the dreams of fellow feeling in their citizens  the  dreams of the proletariat turned inward and their hate and pain transformed  them into wolves instead.

 

When there is no longer room in the heart for empathy, it dies and kills part of us and the result is, as the singer song-writer Martyn Joseph said, “the good in us is dead.” Joseph feared would happen in that other Balkan state, Kosovo. What was left there were vicious dogs snarling and biting each other. And the brotherhood of man was given up as an empty dream. The best in them was dead. Leaving an empty burnt-out husk, incapable of love, empathy or fellow feeling. Only a corpse remained. That is the power of hate. It is as transformative as the power of love but in the opposite direction.

 

A couple of decades later, the world was left with another leader, Donald Trump who as I have said before, has the empathy of a turnip. His hatred turned a nation of brave men and women into a nation that feared itself, and found a scapegoat, the immigrants, who could be dispatched by a crowd in a packed arena at the 2020 Republican National Convention chanting gleefully, “Deportation Now.”  All of this while holding signs underneath smiling faces that read “Mass Deportation.”  This looked to me like the brownshirts of Nazi Germany who viciously turned on their Jewish neighbours. That was how the American MAGA crowd turned on their brown immigrant neighbours, demanding they be deported or sent to Latin American jails for torture. When your empathy is shredded what else could you do but shout for joy around calls to “lock them up?” The ugly ideology of Nazi Germany’s Kristallnacht had taken over in America. To me it felt viscerally, like there was a direct lineal line of descendant, from the Night of Broken glass in Germany against Jews led by the Nazi Party’s SS troops and aided by the hateful Hitler youth and then ordinary, but rancid, Germans to those American Republicans. The bullies again were in control, only this time in America.

 

 

The Great Ordeal

The great ordeal began at 5:30 a.m. We had to carry our own luggage to the main floor for pickup to the coach.  I was grateful that by my standards I packed light.  I could have travelled even lighter had I left my tripod, which did not work, at home. My bad. After that I learned why leaving luggage at the door in the hallway, while risky, is such a good idea. Getting all our luggage to the main floor of the hotel while it was crammed with people leaving was a challenge. The first of many this long last day.

 

Novella, our CAA representative was very helpful as always. She works hard on her trips. Her passengers are the beneficiaries. She shepherded us through the check-in process which always seems bewildering no matter how often you do it. At least to me.

 

For once it is nice to be heading home. I am rarely eager to get home. This trip was an exception. Mainly because the trip was an ordeal for Christiane. Perhaps this is our last European trip. That would be sad, but it might be realistic. It has become very hard for her.  While I frolicked all over, she was often stuck on the ship. I felt guilt. She felt pain and disappointment.  Thank good ness she had the bartender to keep her company. They became good friends.

 

We are not sure what comes next. Really there is no way travelling can get easier than a river cruise. If this is too hard, we are done. We only unpacked once and packed up once.  Of course, there were the extra days at the beginning and end.

 

I have decided to not even think of travel for a few months. For me that was a resolution impossible to meet.

 

Other than her woes, I enjoyed the trip immensely. I guess I can still do it, though it is challenging. More challenging than it ever was before. It was more interesting than most trips or two reasons: the people we encountered on and off the ship. People are always the best part. Secondly, the cities were beautiful with fascinating histories (to me at least). Others don’t care about history as I do.  They are entitled to that view. The food was fantastic. I have never eaten as well on a huge ocean ship. The smaller numbers allow the chefs to shine. The fellow travellers were outstanding. They always are. The staff were always helpful, attentive, and cheerful. They worked hard to make our trip enjoyable.

 

Yet travel gets harder and harder each year, because our bodies lose capacity each year too. We won’t talk about the minds. Stress seems to be amplified every year, particularly on flights and in and around airports. They generate stress in creative new ways each year. As a result, even flying premium economy as we did, is more stressful than we would desire. But premium economy helped BIGLY. We can’t fight it.  We are what we are.

 

Much to our surprise, after we learned from our new Newfie friend Mack that Frankfurt was the worst airport in Europe, which was confirmed by our bad experiences in the airport pn the way in, this time things went relatively smoothly. But this time we were lucky. Not smart, lucky.

 

When we landed in Frankfurt and disembarked, it took quite a while for us to be reunited with Christiane’s walker. We stood and waited for a long time after being assured it would come soon. Novella, the CAA representative, stood faithfully by our side. We were not worried. Well not much. Eventually it did arrive and again we had our long walk to the right gate. By then we were a long way behind our confreres.

We told Novella to leave and catch the other passengers, as we would make it to the Gate on our own. We had plenty of time. It was another long walk and again for some mystical reason had to have our passports checked again, even though they had been checked in Budapest and we had not left the airport security zones. Why we had no idea. No other airport asked for that. We trudged to the gate which as usual was at the far end of the airport.

 

When we arrived at the right gate, we noticed none of our fellow travellers were there. How could that be? Could they have boarded the aircraft?  No, we were assured. Were we at the right gate? Yes, we were assured again. What could have happened to our friends? Another mystery.

 

It was only a mystery until our friends, now frazzled, all arrived about 15 minutes after us! What had happened? The same thing that happened on our first flight to Frankfurt.  Our friends arrived well before us, but were told they were at the wrong gate because it had been changed so they had to walk back, like we did coming in the first time. Again, like the first time they had to turn around and walk back because the gate was changed again, to the original gate, where Christiane and I were sitting.  We missed this adventure because we were so slow. We missed entirely the shovelling back and forth because we were so slow the first time. Sometimes it pays to be slow. This was one of them. So Frankfurt airport was only acceptable because we screwed up and did not follow instructions designed to make it difficult.

We did make it home, but we were weary.

Christiane has resolved to never fly again. I will believe that when I see it.

Night Walk in Budapest

 

 

 

 

It was our last night in Budapest before flying home. Once again, Christiane stayed in the hotel while I meandered along both sides of the river. This time I went at night.  And it was sensational.

 

Night photography is tricky and  really requires a tripod, and mine was not working. Yet I wanted to photograph some of the beautiful buildings at night.  I would have to rely on luck and the monitor at the back of the camera to give me a rough idea how things would look. Using brains was out of the question.

Right across the river from our hotel we had a lovely view of Buda Castle or the Royal castle which I had photographed during the day. It is a magnificent structure.

 

The Chain Bridge is also beautiful at night as it as during the day.  In fact, it is more beautiful. Our hotel was very close to it. Here I crossed to the Buda side of the Danube  from the Pest side where our hotel was located.

 

Budapest’s Chain Bridge is one of its most iconic features. Linking one side of the city to the other and spanning the Danube, the bridge opened in 1849 and is the oldest permanent bridge on the Danube River in Hungary. Stone lions guard the bridge, and you can see it walking or driving. I saw it a number of times walking and twice driving across it. Everyone should see this bridge during the day and again at night.

 

I got one last look at Mattias Church from near the Chain Bridge. I thought it looked spectacular at night.  Especially on a night when the clouds looked ominous. After that I continued on the Buda side of the river towards the Parliament buildings.

 

I enjoyed the evening walk immensely. I had no fear of thugs. Thug should fear me! There are thugs in Hungary, but the scariest kind wear business suits and enjoy praise and worship from American conservatives.

 

I marvelled at the Parliament buildings at night. I just wished the parliament was as good as its building.  Unfortunately, Hungary’s democratic Parliament was increasingly tolerating a leader, Viktor Orbán, who has been showing strong autocratic tendencies during his second term in office.

 

Orbán, like Hitler he was democratically elected. Also, like Trump of course. But ever since Orbán was elected the second time, he has been undercutting the democratic process for his own personal benefit. Again, like Trump. Some like Bill Maher Trump will use his power to secure for himself and unconstitutional 3rd term. This is certainly not impossible.

Those of us who live in democratic societies and who enjoy the protections and benefits it offers must be alert to the challenges democracy faces, particularly in the current state of the world, have to be alert to those challenges and must protect it. Or we will lose it. It really is that simple.

 

In recent years, Viktor Orbán has become the political darling of the American right, much to my complete surprise. Why has that happened?  How could this happen in a country like Hungary which had been under the control of an autocratic communist regime for so long after the Second World War? How could the people now acquiesce to losing democratic rights so soon?  This question has bothered me throughout our trip through the Balkans.  This night it puzzled me as I walked along the beautiful Danube River and photographed Hungary’s beautiful Parliament that sadly was not protecting its democracy?

 

Then, secondly, how could so many Americans, and to a lesser extent Canadians, fall under the sway of autocratic leaders like Orbán? Conservatives always claim to be strong defenders of democracy, at least until the last few years. To me it was incomprehensible that they would lose interest in democracy, but that seems widespread. Why has this happened? I still wanted to explore this question.  After all, if it happened in Hungary it could happen in the United States or Canada? It is a sad fact that many young people have lost faith in democracy. Perhaps this is because the older generation, has for too long been using the levers of political power to benefit themselves at the expense of the younger generation who is getting screwed.  I believe this. Many of my friends are not convinced by my arguments but I think evidence is everywhere. Why else is education so much more expensive than it was in my day?  Why do tax laws favor the old so much?

 

 

This is a view of Parliament from the chain bridge.

I thought about crazy things like that as I was walking down the Danube shoreline that beautiful last night in Budapest, and frankly for quite a while after returning home. It is still bothering me.

Budapest  was both good and bad, but it sure was great to see and learn from. I would love to go back for a longer stay.

When I got back to the hotel, Christiane and I set our alarm clocks for 5:30 am. This would not even leave us enough time for breakfast in the morning. Ouch.  We were flying home. Flying is the worst part of travel. And this flight back home was no exception to that rule.

When I got back to the hotel, Christiane and I set our alarm clocks for 5:30 am. This would not even leave us enough time for breakfast in the morning. Ouch.  We were flying home. Flying is the worst part of travel. And this flight back home was no exception to that rule.

Another side of Budapest

 

 

 

Along our walk, beside the beauty of Budapest we saw another side of Budapest. Not everything in Budapest is beautiful. Some of it is dark.

We can see people begging for help pretty well everywhere in the world, except those places where governments hide them from us. Those places don’t want us to see the truth. It is a sight you can see anywhere, even in the richest countries.  People who beg. I had some interesting questions with people about this on the ship. Some of my fellow cruisers, who, like me, basked in luxury eating incredibly good food, had little or  no sympathy that was apparent for people reduced to such poverty.  It was their view that there is plenty of work around. Those who want to, can work. Begging is not necessary. The beggars have a choice and choose to beg rather than work. This money added a religious element. She appeared to be begging god to help her  or influence one of us to help her.

 

My view is a little different. I don’t think anyone, or at least almost none, would choose to beg. For most people it is humiliating to beg and will only do so under extreme circumstances . Most people in our society get self-esteem from working. They don’t want to beg but have no good other choices.

Besides that, I have no idea why anyone was begging. Perhaps some did it because they could make more money that way than working. I just did not think many people are like that. Who knows what ill health or bad luck had reduced this woman to lying down in the middle of a busy street with her hands stretched out in prayer with a small cup asking for help? I chose to help. I don’t say that makes me any better than anyone else. It just made me feel better. I chose to believe she needed help and I could help.

Even near a Burger King people can need help to get food.

 

This was my sister-in-law and walking companion who like me wanted to see a bit of the city on our own.

A collage of Budapest posters

 

Revellers masks. I have seen so many of these in thriller movies such masks give me a bit of a chill.

 

“I love me”, it says.

 

You tell me what this means

 

Bad Boys go to Budapest

 

Good and bad, Budapest was great to see and learn from. I would love to back for a longer stay.